Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Cyprus
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Philippines
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Korea, South
  • Taiwan*
  • Japan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,603$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,622.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(115,622.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,119$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,864.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,864.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,311$ on 2020-05-19

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,615$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{146,623.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(146,623.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,199$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(577 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,177.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,177.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,521$ on 2020-05-19

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,659$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,441.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,441.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $278$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(49.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(263.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,946$ on 2020-05-19

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,764$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(383.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,962$ on 2020-05-19

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,063$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,732.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 73.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,732.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $227$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(9.23 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(265.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,045$ on 2020-05-19

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $918$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(203 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{892.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(892.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(6.56 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 14.5)}}\) (asimptote \(16.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $386$ on 2020-05-19

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,854$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,461.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,461.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $329$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(32.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{459.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(459.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,891$ on 2020-05-19

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,942$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,862.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,862.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $837$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(92.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{879.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(879.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,262$ on 2020-05-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Korea, South recovered 90%
Taiwan* recovered 89%
Israel recovered 70%
Japan recovered 66%
Turkey recovered 57%
Malaysia recovered 53%
Georgia recovered 35%
Singapore recovered 12%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,063$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,624.4}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,624.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,638$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,638.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,638.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115$ on 2020-05-19

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,110$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(5.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,532.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,532.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $263$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(67.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(261.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $781$ on 2020-05-19

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(106 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{433.7}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(433.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-05-19

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,367$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,493.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,493.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $768$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(38.6 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{902.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(902.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,035$ on 2020-05-19