Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,603$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,622.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(115,622.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,119$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,864.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,864.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,311$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $151,615$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{146,623.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(146,623.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,199$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(577 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,177.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,177.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,521$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,659$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,441.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,441.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $278$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(49.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(263.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,946$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,764$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $121$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(383.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,962$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,063$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,732.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 73.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,732.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $227$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(9.23 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(265.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,045$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $918$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(203 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{892.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(892.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(6.56 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 14.5)}}\) (asimptote \(16.4\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $386$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,854$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,461.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,461.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(32.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{459.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(459.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,891$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,942$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,862.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,862.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $837$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(92.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{879.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(879.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,262$ on 2020-05-19